Texas solar power is on track to reach a significant milestone in 2026, as renewable energy plays an increasingly important role in meeting the state’s rapidly growing demand for electricity.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that utility-scale solar generation will surpass coal generation for the first time on an annual basis within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, which serves most of the state. Solar is projected to generate 78 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity this year, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours from coal.

The shift has been building steadily. From 2021 through 2025, solar’s share of ERCOT electricity generation increased from 4 percent to 12 percent, while coal’s share declined from 19 percent to 13 percent. Natural gas remains the grid’s dominant electricity source, accounting for an average 44 percent of generation during that period.

Texas is also expected to account for approximately 40 percent of new U.S. utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2026. Among the projects expected to begin operating this year is Tehuacana Creek 1 Solar and BESS, an 837-megawatt combined solar and battery energy storage project. The EIA expects it to be the largest solar photovoltaic project coming online nationally in 2026. No new coal plants are currently planned for ERCOT.

The additional generating capacity comes at an important time. Electricity demand continues to climb across Texas, fueled in part by large new loads from data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial activity and oil and gas operations.

Solar first generated more electricity than coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis in March 2025, when solar generation reached 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours compared with 4.16 billion from coal. The EIA expects solar to exceed coal generation during most months of 2026 and projects the gap to widen further in 2027.

By 2027, annual solar generation in ERCOT is forecast to reach 99 billion kilowatt-hours, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours from coal. An additional 11.8 billion kilowatt-hours of solar capacity is expected to come online that year.

For North Texans, the numbers illustrate a larger energy transition underway. As electricity demand grows, solar and battery storage are becoming increasingly significant components of the Texas energy mix, helping diversify the resources used to keep homes, businesses and communities powered.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook